Welcome to the Fourth Annual Personal Finance Bloggers’ Stock Picking Contest. I’m the guy who doesn’t take it seriously. Nice to meet you.
Ironically, I’ve done fairly well over the first three years with performances of +56.14% in 2009, +26.56% in 2010, and a rather poor -17.04% in 2011. My hypothetical cumulative return would be +63.94% over the last three years, or an annualized rate of +17.91%. I suppose I should quit my day job and just trade my own portfolio, right?
Well, I actually DID quit my day job in 2011 but I’m under no illusion that the performance is due to skill. I’ve just been lucky. And you know how it goes, once you start putting it in practice, life hands you your ass on a plate.
So… first the picks for 2012 followed by disclaimers and then results for 2011.
Top 2012 Stock Picks
The criteria is to pick four securities in equal dollar amounts listed on a Canadian or American exchange (not including derivatives) to just sit on for the duration of 2012 with no changes allowed. We are to provide updates every quarter and the contest ends on the last trading day of 2011. The initial prices will be based on the closing prices on December 30th, 2011. The final prices are based on the closing prices on the last trading day of 2012.
1. Starbucks @ $46.01 (NASDAQ:SBUX) – I just had one so it’s top of mind right now.
2. Apple @ $405.00 (NASDAQ:APPL) – iPad 3, iPhone 5, and Apple might re-invent the TV this year. I also understand Steve Jobs and Tupac will release a collaborative album in 2012.
3. Research in Motion @ $14.50 (NASDAQ:RIMM) – Perhaps they got beaten up too much, perhaps they get bought out. Then again, perhaps they have further to fall.
4. Bank of America @ $5.56 (NYSE:BAC) – Bit of a contrarian play… and that’s about as much thought I put into it.
This Doesn’t Sound Like You
Regular readers know that I don’t normally talk about specific investments. For the first year’s contest I initially hesitated since I was worried that some readers might take some of these picks to heart and actually buy them themselves as part of their investment portfolios. However, I decided to participate anyways deciding that I’ll just disclaimer the heck out of it. To that end:
This Is Just For Funsies
THIS STOCK PICKING CONTEST IS JUST FOR FUN, IT IS NOTHING MORE THAN GAMBLING. DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT BUYING THE STOCKS LISTED HERE OR ON ANY OF THE OTHER BLOGGERS’ SITES WITHOUT FIRST CONSULTING A PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISOR. IF YOU BUY THEM ANYWAYS BASED ON THIS POST, YOU MUST RAISE YOUR RIGHT HAND BEFORE PLACING THE ORDER AND REPEAT, “I AM A NUTBAR”.
My 2011 Results
1. Ford Motor Company – F (NYSE) – Start price was $16.79. Closing price was $10.76. Total return to date = -35.91%
2. Claymore Silver Bullion Trust – SVR.UN (TSX) – Start price was $18.33. Closing price was $16.10. Total return to date = -12.17%
3. Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF – VWO (NYSE) – Start price was $48.15. Closing price was $38.21 plus dividends received. Total return to date = -18.75%
4. CIBC – CM (TSX) – Start price was $78.33. Closing price was $73.79 + quarterly dividend of $0.87. Total return to date = -1.33%
Overall performance was -17.04%. Boo.
What The Other Guys Are Picking
Here is a list of links to the other participating members’ picks from last year and picks for 2012:
Dividend Growth Investor +15.36% in 2011
Million Dollar Journey +3.12%
Intelligent Speculator -4.90%
Money Smarts Blog -9.55%
Where Does All My Money Go -17.04%
My Traders Journal -19.00%
The Financial Blogger -21.73%
Wild Investor -33.34%
Beating The Index -44.08%
The Passive Income Earner (NEW)
Dividend Mantra (NEW)
We’ll each provide updates every quarter. Stay tuned, and HAPPY NEW YEAR!