I believe Buffet/Munger have skill, and I’d say I think it is possible for someone to find a similar great investor. That is if they followed the same long term, slow and steady investment philosophy as Buffet/Munger which seems unlikely these days.

Just think about it, Buffet/Munger have demonstrated their skill for 40 years now! I think after the first 15-20 years of trouncing the market it was a pretty reasonable bet that they aren’t an outlier or simply lucky by random.

So does anyone know of some potentially great fund managers with a good 20 year track record?

I’m not entirely convinced his track record over the last decade is stellar. He’s a phenomenal investor – much of his wealth comes from a a core group of holdings that he has nurtured over many decades. Granted, I haven’t broken down his assets to see where the majority of his wealth comes from. I’m just speculating on what I understand from his investment style.

You want to talk about purely consistent active managers – I think you’re talking Peter Lynch and to a lesser extent hedge fund manager John Paulson has executed some of the best trades of all time. Bill Miller at Legg Mason was an impressive anomaly who had his streak broken a couple of years ago.

Buffet’s style is so hard to duplicate in this environment. Most investors look at three to five year track records, this guy is an investor/business owner who buys companies with a very long view.

Anyways, Buffett himself said that most Mom and Pop investors are better off buying an index.

I think its fair to say Buffett is good, not lucky. The more important question is whether his investment strategy would work if he was just starting out today as a stock picker?

This is what sets him apart from fund managers. He actually understands the business underlying the stock because he runs businesses himself as opposed fund managers who rely on analysts who are well-educated but mostly have never personally experienced day to day cash flow ups and downs of a business.

This is what makes Buffett (and Prem Watsa) an outlier. How many modern day fund managers actually run businesses?

Buffett’s success is skill meets an environment which rarely exists anymore. Most modern fund managers get spit out of b-school, start on a trading desk and then become fund managers. Buffett’s career arch is different explaining his different results.